The featured chart depicts the combination El Nino 3.4 Index and monthly average temperature departures for Ames. The current forecast by NOAA indicates a 80% chance that an El Nino will form this winter and persist into the spring season. What does that mean for Iowa's upcoming season? Unfortunately, there is no simple relationship whereby you can take the El Nino index and derive the weather for Iowa. The featured chart shows that for the metric of average monthly temperature, it is a mixed bag when the index is not strongly in one direction or another. The most recent "Godzilla El Nino" from 2015 certainly was a driver for a number of consecutive months in a row with above average temperatures, but the current forecasted index is no were near those levels.

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