731 ACUS11 KWNS 110051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110051 FLZ000-110215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST MON DEC 10 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 110051Z - 110215Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST INTENSITIES ARE INCREASING. DISCUSSION...NRN EXTENT OF SQUALL LINE LOCATED NEAR THE TAMPA BAY AREA IS MOVING EAST NEAR 30 KT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOWING STRUCTURE AS WELL AS A BOOK END VORTEX NEAR ITS NRN END. THE 00Z RAOB FROM TAMPA SHOWED A VERY WEAK CAP...MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 250 M2/S2. RADAR DATA FROM TAMPA INDICATED SUB SEVERE MAX RADIAL VELOCITIES /BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KT/ NEAR THE SFC AT 0025Z. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE AND IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 12/11/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 27988090 27598209 27858220 28208212 28378109 27988090  804 ACUS01 KWNS 110058 SWODY1 SPC AC 110056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 PM CST MON DEC 10 2012 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN INTERIOR NORTH AMERICA LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS NEWD INTO SRN QUEBEC...AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SSEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE ERN STATES. BY 12Z TUE...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND SWWD THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS...SERN GA TO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. ...FL PENINSULA... INLAND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING FROM TSTMS THAT HAVE NOW MOVED OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL FURTHER STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE NRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS S FL TO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT THROUGH THE EVENING SUGGESTS TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF COULD POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE 12Z 4 KM WRF-NMM INDICATED THE ACTIVITY NOW MOVING EWD THROUGH THE TAMPA/ST PETERSBURG FL AREA AND STORMS TRAILING SWWD OFFSHORE WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SRN FL THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES AS THIS SAME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DECREASING TREND IS EXPECTED IN STORM INTENSITIES. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM DETAILS...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2152. ...SRN AL/SRN GA/ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NWRN FL... TRENDS IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SINCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED DECREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT AND INVOF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS SRN GA. THIS TREND IS EVIDENT IN THE LACK OF LIGHTNING PRODUCTION ACROSS THESE AREAS SINCE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND AND THE STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARRANT THE REMOVAL OF THE GENERAL TSTM AREA FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO GA AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS. ..PETERS.. 12/11/2012  703 ACUS11 KWNS 110435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110434 FLZ000-110600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 PM CST MON DEC 10 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 110434Z - 110600Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER SRN PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH 06Z. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE SWRN FL COAST WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LIGHTNING FREQUENCY AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS NOTED. THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SRN FL IS VERY MOIST AND HAS LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING 2000-2300 J/KG MLCAPE PER 00Z RAOBS FROM MIAMI AND KEY WEST. INFLOW OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AND A WEAK CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO THE FL PENINSULA NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS THROUGH LOWEST 5 KM ARE MODEST /20-25 KT/ BUT INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY ABOVE THIS LEVEL TO SUPPORT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE WHICH COULD PROMOTE BOWING SEGMENTS AND AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT ARE THE MODEST WINDS AND MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THROUGH 5 KM. ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 12/11/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL... LAT...LON 25958161 26308129 26458070 26268046 25858058 25678102 25958161  021 ACUS01 KWNS 110555 SWODY1 SPC AC 110553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST MON DEC 10 2012 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE S FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO DIG SSEWD REACHING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN CA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND ZONAL FLOW INTO THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE... SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ERN SEABOARD TODAY...AS A TROUGH SHIFTS EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND INTO E TX/LA BY 12Z WED. THE PRIMARY AREA EXPECTED TO HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION/TSTM THREAT IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA. ...CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH FL PENINSULA... A SRN STREAM MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY OBSERVED MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO /255 E BRO/ PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BETWEEN 15-20Z. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS MIDLEVEL FEATURE AND CONVERGENCE INVOF SEVERAL BOUNDARIES TODAY - 1. CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY DRAPED NE-SW ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND 2. SEA AND LAKE BREEZES - WILL LIKELY SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY ATTENDANT TO THE GULF OF MEXICO IMPULSE MAY BE ONGOING BY THE START OF DAY 1 AND MOVE INLAND LATER IN THE MORNING. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH 00Z RAOBS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOB 1.75 INCHES. SWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THIS MOISTURE FEED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL FL. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...THE RICH MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG. MIDLEVEL SWLY WINDS AT 35-40 KT WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT...AS VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS IN S FL WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT. CLOUDINESS OVER S FL DURING THE FIRST PART OF TODAY WILL BE REMNANT FROM TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION AT THIS TIME. THIS MAY INHIBIT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR AFTERNOON TSTM FORMATION ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM PRE-DAY 1 ACTIVITY. IF GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THE REST OF S FL MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THIS OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS S OF THE SLIGHT RISK. ..PETERS/MOSIER.. 12/11/2012  288 ACUS02 KWNS 110558 SWODY2 SPC AC 110557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST MON DEC 10 2012 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGHING NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTH AMERICA STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO A MORE DISTINCT SPLIT UPPER FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. ONE OF THESE BRANCHES APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND IN GENERALLY ZONAL FASHION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...WHILE A BRANCH TO THE SOUTH BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER STATES. WITHIN THIS LATTER STREAM...AND TO THE SOUTH OF A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST...CONTRIBUTING TO LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD AND BROADEN EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS REMNANT UPPER TROUGHING LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THE VARIOUS MODELS APPEAR IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THIS LATTER FEATURE...AND GENERALLY TO THE SLOWER SIDE OF WHAT MOST GUIDANCE HAS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED. THIS COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE NATION WILL BE GENERALLY STABLE WITH NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ACCELERATING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN ITS SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND PERHAPS BETTER PHASING WITH A STRENGTHENING BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...ASSOCIATED LIFT COULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE ANTICIPATED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND SHEAR...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER...IT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE. ..KERR.. 12/11/2012  064 ACUS03 KWNS 110823 SWODY3 SPC AC 110821 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA IS SIZABLE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN A STRONG MID-LATITUDE JET PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC. BUT FLOW WILL REMAIN SPLIT TO ITS EAST...ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST INTO NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...LIKELY ACROSS CALIFORNIA...BY 12Z THURSDAY. AND IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE UPSTREAM JET WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... CONTRIBUTING THE EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INTERACTION WITH A BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...LEADING TO FURTHER UPPER JET INTENSIFICATION AROUND THE BASED OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CREST OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTENING AND CLOUD COVER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW COMMENCES OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING PROBABLY WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTH TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE A RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE SURFACE LAYER MAY REACH PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...IT SEEMS THAT THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH MID-LEVEL WARMING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL COOLING ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTHERN ROCKIES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ..KERR.. 12/11/2012  972 ACUS48 KWNS 110956 SWOD48 SPC AC 110955 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012 VALID 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ALTHOUGH MODEST SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS COMING FRIDAY/SATURDAY IS FAIRLY HIGH. HOWEVER...AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ONLY BEING IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES... JUXTAPOSITION OF THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY...THROUGH ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WAVE MAY BE TO HELP ESTABLISH SUFFICIENT MOISTENING...ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST REGION...TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WITH THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE SPREAD AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA...THOUGH...IS STILL MUCH TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGION SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND GRAPHICALLY DELINEATE AN AREA. ..KERR.. 12/11/2012  583 ACUS01 KWNS 111241 SWODY1 SPC AC 111239 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON... A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SEWD ACROSS SE GA/N FL AND OFF THE SC/NC COASTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIE ALONG THE SERN FRINGE OF A BELT OF STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE SRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE /PW VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...WITH ASSOCIATED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS S FL. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY S OF A LINE FROM FORT MEYERS TO VERO BEACH...WHILE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO THE N OF THE THICKER CLOUDS AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 67-70 F WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. THE ONGOING S FL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND/OR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS. THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE LIMITED OVERALL BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE E COAST SEA BREEZE. LIKEWISE...THE HAIL RISK WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AS A RESULT OF THE MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 12/11/2012  677 ACUS01 KWNS 111619 SWODY1 SPC AC 111617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...FL... BROAD...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND REGION INTO SOUTHEAST GA. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL BE QUITE VEERED ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED. THE AREA WHERE ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY WOULD BE ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE...AND OVER SOUTH FL ALONG A WEAK REMNANT BOUNDARY. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT HAIL OR A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ..HART/CORFIDI.. 12/11/2012  020 ACUS02 KWNS 111653 SWODY2 SPC AC 111652 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE PACIFIC COAST...LEADING TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER CNTRL CA AND THE GREAT BASIN. DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...WHILE A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY QUICKLY EJECTS EWD...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE PERIOD. ...FL PENINSULA... A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL GLANCE THE AREA...POSSIBLY BOLSTERING ASCENT ALONG A SLOW SWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL FL. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RECENT THICK CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST...LEADING TO QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA /PARTICULARLY N FL/. VEERING BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES ALONG THE E COAST MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM GIVEN A STRONGER UPDRAFT. HOWEVER...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR/FLOW WILL LIKELY HINDER A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. ..DISPIGNA/CORFIDI.. 12/11/2012  188 ACUS01 KWNS 111940 SWODY1 SPC AC 111938 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CST TUE DEC 11 2012 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA... ...FL PENINSULA... NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH IS LARGELY ON TRACK. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE WINDS SUBTLY BACKING TO THE SE-E INDICATE A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE EAST COAST. DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELDS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG A W-E BOUNDARY OFFSHORE OF TBW AND EXTENDING TO MLB...AND AS SUCH THE SLIGHT HAS BEEN EXPANDED. WITH EARLIER CIRRUS THINNING...A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER S FL...AND MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR INITIATION AS WELL. GIVEN SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT LEAST MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW...SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..DISPIGNA/CORFIDI.. 12/11/2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012/ ...FL... BROAD...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND REGION INTO SOUTHEAST GA. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL BE QUITE VEERED ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED. THE AREA WHERE ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY WOULD BE ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE...AND OVER SOUTH FL ALONG A WEAK REMNANT BOUNDARY. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT HAIL OR A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  423 ACUS11 KWNS 112155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112155 FLZ000-112330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CST TUE DEC 11 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 112155Z - 112330Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER STORM COVERAGE WILL WARRANT A WW...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 21-22Z SHOWS THAT TEMPERATURES NEAR 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ARE FOCUSING A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS FROM FAR SRN FL INTO THE E-CNTRL PENINSULA. THIS WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR 8C IS AIDING IN SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-3500 J/KG. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE WEAK...A CONFLUENT SURFACE FLOW REGIME AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS YIELDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM HIGHLANDS COUNTY E-SEWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED DURING THE EVENING...WHICH MAY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. HOWEVER...TBW VWP SHOWS 35 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SVR MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. ..GARNER/HART.. 12/11/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 25908064 26198162 27318184 28248143 28218062 26608001 25908064