000 ACUS11 KWNS 170005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170004 FLZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CST WED MAR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 51... VALID 170004Z - 170030Z TORNADO WATCH 51 EXPIRES AT 01Z AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REISSUED. A MESOLOW HAS MOVED ASHORE VCNTY KTPA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS POLK... OSCEOLA...ORANGE AND NRN BREVARD COUNTIES ALONG A BOUNDARY THROUGH 02Z AT 35 KTS. TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS UNSTABLE. THOUGH THE FLOW HAS BECOME WLY THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THOUGH THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 01Z...A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF ECNTRL FL THROUGH 02Z. AFTERWARDS...THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER UVV WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE NEWD OFF THE FL COAST. ..RACY.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 29818197 30138141 28578057 28258062 27288022 27598246 28488255  000 ACUS01 KWNS 170044 SWODY1 SPC AC 170042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST WED MAR 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 10 WNW FMY ...CONT... 10 WNW PIE 15 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CTY 40 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 25 E GEG 15 W PUW 40 NW ALW 20 NNW YKM 15 NNW OLM 20 SSE UIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... ...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED NEWD OFF THE FL COAST AND SO HAS MOST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A WEAK SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EAST OF TPA IS TRACKING ENEWD AT 35 KT AND WILL MOVE OFF THE PENINSULA PRIOR TO 03Z. THE VEERED WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS LOCATED NEAR AND EAST OF THIS SYSTEM. WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER... BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. ..IMY.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS01 KWNS 170524 SWODY1 SPC AC 170522 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST WED MAR 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HLC 40 W AKO 40 NNW 4FC 40 SSW RWL 30 W WRL SHR 35 ENE 81V 30 ESE PHP 30 NNE YKN 25 SW SUX 15 WNW LNK 25 NW HLC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CTY 45 NNW DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BROADEN DURING THE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONGER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS IN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON... WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN IA INTO NRN INDIANA. ...SRN FL PENINSULA... CONVECTION STREAMING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA HAS RESULTED IN A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY TO PUSH SWD TO NEAR A SRQ-MLB LINE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE DAY ...AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW...WITH MID LEVEL WINDS NEAR 80 KT ...WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR...MUCAPES SHOULD NEAR 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON IS QUESTIONABLE AS THE CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PENINSULA MAY DRIFT SWD INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. IF THE AREA CAN STAY RAIN FREE... ISOLATED WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT THREAT APPEARS LOW ATTM. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND RESULTS IN STRONG COOLING ALOFT. THIS WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES...THOUGH MODELS SHOW ALMOST NO INSTABILITY DUE TO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION WITH A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES. ..IMY/GUYER.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS02 KWNS 170707 SWODY2 SPC AC 170706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E OWB 20 ENE MSL 55 NNW MEI 30 W JAN 50 NNW POE 40 NNW LFK 35 SW TYR 50 NNW HOT 40 NW COU 30 SSW DSM 15 ENE FOD 35 S LNR 35 E RFD 35 ENE LAF 40 E OWB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WRN STATES BY THE END OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS A LARGE PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CA COAST TO NRN BAJA REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. A BROAD ZONE OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN TIER OF STATES WITH SEVERAL LEADING PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRACKING EWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME INTO TX. MEANWHILE...A MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND FL. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WITH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS IA TO SRN WI/NRN IL BY 12Z SATURDAY... WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY. ...MS VALLEY... STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED FROM IA TO AR AND THEN EWD TOWARD IND TO NWRN AL ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SLY FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF NWD TO THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS. GIVEN NWLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN GULF AT THE START OF DAY 2 IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AT BEST. SWLY 850-700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ENEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION ATOP THE MODEST RETURN FLOW EFFECTIVELY CAPPING MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WAA ALONG THE SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. ...CA COAST... INCREASING ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALONG THE CA COAST LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS03 KWNS 170850 SWODY3 SPC AC 170848 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...MUCH OF SRN/ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD FROM NWRN MEXICO/SWRN STATES INTO TX ON SATURDAY REACHING ERN TX TO THE NWRN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE FARTHER N...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OVER SRN WI/NRN IL AT 12Z SATURDAY WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 3. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE EWD...EXCEPT FOR THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE WLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF INTO ERN TX. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE ERN HALF OF TX AND LA ON SATURDAY BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS A THERMAL TROUGH SPREADS EWD. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM LA INTO ERN TX AND ALSO ALONG A N-S DRYLINE PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TO DEEP S TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH... STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN/ERN TX AND SPREAD EWD INTO LA SATURDAY NIGHT. 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN/ERN TX WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. ..PETERS.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS01 KWNS 171249 SWODY1 SPC AC 171248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CTY 45 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HLC 30 WSW AKO 30 ENE ASE 40 ENE GJT 45 WSW CAG 25 W WRL SHR 35 ENE 81V 30 ESE PHP FSD 25 SE SUX 25 W OMA 25 NW HLC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH FRIDAY...S OF STATIONARY BLOCK OVER NE CANADA. THE SRN STREAM JET ...COMPRISING SRN PART OF TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SWATH OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NE MEXICO. FARTHER N...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING ID SHOULD REACH CNTRL SD/NEB BY 12Z FRIDAY. WAVY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM OF FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY SE ACROSS FL TODAY. ACTUAL FRONT IS WELL N OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NOW CROSSING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. IN THE PLAINS... CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH ID DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE SE TO NEAR FSD BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...CNTRL/S FL... AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY IN AREA OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER S FL S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE AFTERNOON SBCAPE MAY EXCEED 1250 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND. SMALL SCALE BOWS AND EMBEDDED CELLS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION COULD YIELD A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TIL LATE IN THE DAY. A CELL OR TWO MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN WEAKLY CAPPED/WEAKLY CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT S OF BOUNDARY... ALTHOUGH A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR PRE GUST-FRONT STORMS TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE ERN GULF. THESE MAY ALSO CONTAIN BRIEF STRONG WINDS. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... IN CONTRAST TO FL...VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST INVOF SURFACE WAVE TRACKING SE ACROSS WY/NEB/SD LATER TODAY. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... BOTH DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN VORT MAX...AND ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. BUILDUPS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE WY/CO MOUNTAINS. DESPITE THE POTENT COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY...STORM INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MEAGER MOISTURE. NEVERTHELESS... HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD MAY YIELD A SMALL BAND OR TWO OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN NEB. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS11 KWNS 171337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171337 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-171530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171337Z - 171530Z MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY EXIST NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS MORNING. EARLY THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S FL FROM NEAR BOCA RATON WWD TO NEAR NAPLES. A BROAD FETCH OF SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION N OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. STRONGEST STORM IS CURRENTLY JUST E OF FORT MEYERS WHERE A BOW-ECHO/COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT AND MAY POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT OVERALL SHORT TERM THREAT. THE THREAT MAY INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 41717080 41457278 43467308 44897176 45447014 45466850 44746817 43307076  000 ACUS11 KWNS 171343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171343 COR FLZ000-171530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171343Z - 171530Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC PLACEMENT MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY EXIST NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS MORNING. EARLY THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S FL FROM NEAR BOCA RATON WWD TO NEAR NAPLES. A BROAD FETCH OF SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION N OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. STRONGEST STORM IS CURRENTLY JUST E OF FORT MEYERS WHERE A BOW-ECHO/COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT AND MAY POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT OVERALL SHORT TERM THREAT. THE THREAT MAY INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26837921 26338096 26438221 27208169 27587994  000 ACUS01 KWNS 171458 SWODY1 SPC AC 171456 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 171445Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CTY 45 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HLC 30 WSW AKO 30 ENE ASE 40 ENE GJT 45 WSW CAG 25 W WRL SHR 35 ENE 81V 30 ESE PHP FSD 25 SE SUX 25 W OMA 25 NW HLC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN FL PEN... AMENDED TO ADD SLGT RISK TO SRN FL ...AMENDMENT... PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 303 AND SEVERE WEATHER WATCH 52 FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH FRIDAY...S OF STATIONARY BLOCK OVER NE CANADA. THE SRN STREAM JET ...COMPRISING SRN PART OF TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SWATH OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NE MEXICO. FARTHER N...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING ID SHOULD REACH CNTRL SD/NEB BY 12Z FRIDAY. WAVY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM OF FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY SE ACROSS FL TODAY. ACTUAL FRONT IS WELL N OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NOW CROSSING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. IN THE PLAINS... CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH ID DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE SE TO NEAR FSD BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...CNTRL/S FL... AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY IN AREA OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER S FL S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE AFTERNOON SBCAPE MAY EXCEED 1250 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND. SMALL SCALE BOWS AND EMBEDDED CELLS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION COULD YIELD A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TIL LATE IN THE DAY. A CELL OR TWO MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN WEAKLY CAPPED/WEAKLY CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT S OF BOUNDARY... ALTHOUGH A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR PRE GUST-FRONT STORMS TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE ERN GULF. THESE MAY ALSO CONTAIN BRIEF STRONG WINDS. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... IN CONTRAST TO FL...VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST INVOF SURFACE WAVE TRACKING SE ACROSS WY/NEB/SD LATER TODAY. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... BOTH DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN VORT MAX...AND ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. BUILDUPS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE WY/CO MOUNTAINS. DESPITE THE POTENT COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY...STORM INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MEAGER MOISTURE. NEVERTHELESS... HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD MAY YIELD A SMALL BAND OR TWO OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN NEB. ..KERR.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS01 KWNS 171602 SWODY1 SPC AC 171600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 25 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE CTY 40 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HLC 30 WSW AKO 30 ENE ASE 40 ENE GJT 35 WNW RKS 20 NNW BPI 50 W COD 30 NE COD 35 ENE 81V 35 SSW MHE 15 N OFK 20 ESE GRI 30 NNW HLC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S FL... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY / CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECOND / SMALLER TROUGH WITHIN MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT -- NOW MOVING ACROSS MT / ID / WY -- IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE SEWD INTO THE NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS CENTRAL / SRN FL...WITH MOIST / UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS INDICATED S OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SRN FL. OTHER SURFACE FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER NRN WY / SERN MT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NEB THROUGH THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF NRN ROCKIES UPPER FEATURE. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY...MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- PARTICULARLY NEAR AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING -- MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ...S FL... MOIST / WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVIDENT ACROSS S FL ATTM...S OF EFFECTIVE FRONT EXTENDING W-E FROM ROUGHLY LAKE OKEECHOBEE SWD. STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN A BAND FROM LEE COUNTY ENEWD ST. LUCIE / MARTIN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL STRONG / SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS THE EVERGLADES / KEYS WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. STRONG WIND FIELD OBSERVED ACROSS S FL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF THE SRN FL COAST / THE KEYS LATE IN THE PERIOD...ENDING ANY LINGERING SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS / BANACOS.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS11 KWNS 171709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171709 FLZ000-171815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 52... VALID 171709Z - 171815Z ...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AN ORGANIZING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SURGED AHEAD OF MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA. QUALITY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE SOUTH OF LEADING OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO LIFT NORTH OF BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INLAND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 24558204 27358198 27347968 24527979  000 ACUS02 KWNS 171732 SWODY2 SPC AC 171730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPW MKT 40 SE EAU 35 WSW OSH CGX DNV MVN DYR UOX JAN HEZ ESF SHV TXK FSM UMN MKC STJ 15 NE OMA SPW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WILL OCCUR AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH/BREAKS DOWN SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE RIDGE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DOWNSTREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY... BEFORE CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE INTO THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLING/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE LIMITED. ...PLAINS/MISSSISSIPPI VALLEY... SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES APPEARS RATHER VIGOROUS IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. MID- LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN EXIT REGION OF JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -30C...WHICH WILL DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY/ FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF WARM MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES FRIDAY. STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SOUTHWARD ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THIS AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX. THUS...DESPITE RATHER LOW MOISTURE LEVELS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS WHERE STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS IN WARM SECTOR OF CYCLONE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WITH UPDRAFT STRENGTH MINIMIZED BY VERY WEAK CAPE...HAIL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALLOW CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE...BUT RISK FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS APPEARS TOO REMOTE TO OUTLOOK LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. FARTHER SOUTH...CAPPING SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS... WHERE MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAKER. HOWEVER...DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. BETTER CHANCE MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ..KERR.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS01 KWNS 171941 SWODY1 SPC AC 171939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S FMY 25 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW PIE 25 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HLC 30 WSW AKO 30 ENE ASE 40 ENE GJT 35 WNW RKS 20 NNW BPI 50 W COD 30 NE COD 35 ENE 81V 35 SSW MHE 15 N OFK 20 ESE GRI 30 NNW HLC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN FL PEN.... ...FLORIDA... SURFACE FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...BUT CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED/GENERATED BOUNDARY IS NOW SOUTH OF A PALM BEACH/FORT MYERS LINE. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT NORTHWARD A BIT ALONG THE EAST COAST...BEFORE CONVECTIVE LINE OVERSPREADS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY HAS GENERALLY STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL STREAM. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EASTWARD PROGRESSION HAS BEEN VERY SLOW...WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS JUST NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ACCELERATION OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS FAR...MID-LEVEL CAPPING HAS INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE MIAMI AREA...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE APPEARS TO PROVIDE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT. LINE HAS STRENGTHENED IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...AND MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND MIAMI BY THE 18/00-03Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SHEARED MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME...WHICH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS NEAR STRONGER CELLS. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING...RISK APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND KEYS TOWARD 18/06-09Z. ...NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS... DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH AND WEST OF SURFACE FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BOUNDARY WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS FROM EAST CENTRAL WYOMING INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DRYNESS OF AIR MASS WILL LIMIT INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. ..KERR.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS11 KWNS 172024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172024 FLZ000-172130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 52... VALID 172024Z - 172130Z ...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS... EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES SAGGING SWD AT ROUGHLY 5 KT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MULTIPLE ARC-SHAPED LINE SEGMENTS ARE RACING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 45-50KT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD TRAVERSE E-W BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE SERN TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS. ..DARROW.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW... 25128220 27068019 26017944 24188133