000 ACUS01 KWNS 110053 SWODY1 SPC AC 110051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST THU MAR 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD THROUGH KS/MO WILL DIVE SSEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE FORCING...CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR LIGHTNING. GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THUNDER THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS....GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STABLE AIR MASS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY. ..IMY.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS01 KWNS 110523 SWODY1 SPC AC 110522 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST THU MAR 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CHS 30 WNW FLO 25 NNW SOP 20 NNW RDU 50 N RWI 40 W ORF 10 ENE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SSI 35 NW AGS AVL 30 W DCA 20 ENE BWI 20 NE ACY ...CONT... 30 SSW GON 15 WNW PVD 15 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE POLAR VORTEX...LOCATED OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY WWD...WHILE MAINTAINING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WITHIN THE TROUGH...ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO COLD FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. ...ERN CAROLINAS... AN ATYPICAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE AREA AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH LOW 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES VALUES AROUND 540 M. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 90 KT ALSO SUGGESTS A LOW SEVERE THREAT AS UPDRAFTS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ORGANIZING IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPES AOB 300 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE CAROLINAS/VA ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 110 KT BETWEEN 500 AND 150 MB. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES TO TRANSPORT STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. THE COLD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD RESTRICT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO WIND DAMAGE. IF SEVERE WINDS DO DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD END BY 01/02Z AS THE COLD FRONT/CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE. ..IMY.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS02 KWNS 110645 SWODY2 SPC AC 110644 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA AND EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WWD OFF THE WEST COAST DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL BUILD NWD ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC TO AK/NWRN CANADA. UNSEASONABLY STRONG POLAR VORTEX...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY...IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD ON DAY 2 TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO OFF THE EAST COAST. HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL U.S. AS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES SSEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW ON THE ERN SIDE OF BUILDING RIDGE. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NC/SC WSWWD TO ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION BY 13/ 12Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RETURN FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN GULF SATURDAY...BUT A FRONTAL SURGE INTO THE GULF ON DAY 1 SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE QUALITY OF THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BE POOR... GIVEN DRY WSWLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...EWD ADVECTION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ATOP THE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP THE AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE COLD FRONT... PRECLUDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ..PETERS.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS03 KWNS 110910 SWODY3 SPC AC 110909 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARD THE PAC NW ON DAY 2... AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT ON DAY 3 AS IT MOVES SWWD OVER WA/ORE. BROAD TROUGH WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SWRN STATES EWD. MEANWHILE...SWLY SRN STREAM FLOW EXTENDING FROM MEXICO TO FL WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST STATES. MODELS SUGGEST A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THIS SRN STREAM FLOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MEXICO TOWARD THE NWRN GULF COAST...WITH THE GFS INDICATING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK TRACKING OVER SRN TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE NAM IS FORECASTING WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THIS SAME AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THIS REGION... THE WEAKER NAM APPEARS TO BE MORE RELIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD TO ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION AT 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. ...GULF COAST STATES... RETURN FLOW OFF THE WRN GULF INTO TX AND THE GULF COAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THE QUALITY OF THIS RETURNING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POOR GIVEN GENERALLY DRY WSWLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THIS WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE EWD ADVECTION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ATOP THE RETURN FLOW. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ON SUNDAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION BEING MORE LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL LATE IN THE DAY 3 PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS01 KWNS 111306 SWODY1 SPC AC 111304 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 35 SSE CLT GSO 15 WNW RIC WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GON 15 WNW PVD 15 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SSI 35 NW AGS AVL 30 W DCA 20 ENE BWI 20 NE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW EVV 15 W UIN 25 SSE OTM 10 SE CID 35 SSE DBQ 40 SW RFD 10 NE IND 35 SSE IND 30 NE OWB 40 WSW EVV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN NEAR JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATE ABOUT IT. LEAD DISTURBANCE NOW OVER MO/NW AR/ERN OK SHOULD SHIFT RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE TN VLY TODAY... AND REACH THE NC/SC PIEDMONT BY 00Z SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME ...EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM JET MAX NOW DROPPING S ACROSS MANITOBA WILL BE OVER ERN IA/WRN IL. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT CROSSES THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN OF VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY...AND MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH THE MANITOBA SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ATTM OVER NRN MN. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO INTENSIFY AS IT ACCELERATES SSE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TODAY...AND INTO THE LWR OH VLY EARLY SATURDAY. ...CAROLINAS/VA... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DESTABILIZE CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. COOL MEAN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SPARSE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. BUT UNUSUALLY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ON THE ORDER OF 8 DEGREES PER KM/ AND LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS /AROUND 30 DEGREES/ WILL BE PRESENT OVER REGION...AND FAST /80 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT MID LEVELS. THUS... SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS THAT COULD AUGMENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND YIELD DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS...IF STORMS OR SHOWERS DO INDEED FORM. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA SUGGEST THAT WHILE MO/AR IMPULSE WHILE IS FAIRLY STRONG...SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY CHANNELED. THIS AGREES WITH LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICT RATHER MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AS SYSTEM DRIVES ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VA LATER TODAY. WHILE THE MEAN WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ...UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FOSTER GUST FRONT LONGEVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...MID MS VLY... ISOLATED THUNDER MAY DEVELOP IN EXIT REGION OF STRONG SSE-MOVING JET STREAK LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WHERE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY YIELD SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SURFACE. ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS01 KWNS 111309 SWODY1 SPC AC 111307 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 35 SSE CLT GSO 15 WNW RIC WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GON 15 WNW PVD 15 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SSI 35 NW AGS AVL 30 W DCA 20 ENE BWI 20 NE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW EVV 15 W UIN 25 SSE OTM 10 SE CID 35 SSE DBQ 40 SW RFD 10 NE IND 35 SSE IND 30 NE OWB 40 WSW EVV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN NEAR JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATE ABOUT IT. LEAD DISTURBANCE NOW OVER MO/NW AR/ERN OK SHOULD SHIFT RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE TN VLY TODAY... AND REACH THE NC/SC PIEDMONT BY 00Z SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME ...EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM JET MAX NOW DROPPING S ACROSS MANITOBA WILL BE OVER ERN IA/WRN IL. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT CROSSES THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN OF VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY...AND MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH THE MANITOBA SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ATTM OVER NRN MN. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO INTENSIFY AS IT ACCELERATES SSE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TODAY...AND INTO THE LWR OH VLY EARLY SATURDAY. ...CAROLINAS/VA... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DESTABILIZE CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. COOL MEAN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SPARSE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. BUT UNUSUALLY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ON THE ORDER OF 8 DEGREES PER KM/ AND LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS /AROUND 30 DEGREES/ WILL BE PRESENT OVER REGION...AND FAST /80 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT MID LEVELS. THUS... SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS THAT COULD AUGMENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND YIELD DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS...IF STORMS OR SHOWERS DO INDEED FORM. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA SUGGEST THAT WHILE MO/AR IMPULSE IS FAIRLY STRONG...VORT SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY CHANNELED. THIS AGREES WITH LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICT RATHER MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AS SYSTEM DRIVES ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VA LATER TODAY. WHILE THE MEAN WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ...UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FOSTER GUST FRONT LONGEVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...MID MS VLY... ISOLATED THUNDER MAY DEVELOP IN EXIT REGION OF STRONG SSE-MOVING JET STREAK LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WHERE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY YIELD SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SURFACE. ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS01 KWNS 111606 SWODY1 SPC AC 111604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 20 WSW GSB 45 NNW RWI 20 W RIC 20 NE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MTO 20 W BMI DBQ 35 WNW LNR 25 ESE VOK 35 ENE MSN 20 NW CGX 35 NE LAF 30 NW LUK 45 E LEX 25 WSW JKL 45 NE OWB 45 SSE MTO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CHS 20 SE AGS 25 N SPA 25 S SSU 35 WNW DCA 20 NW DOV 30 S ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN VA/ERN NC... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... VERY STRONG FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH AS S/WV IMPULSE CURRENTLY TN VALLEY MOVES TO OFF E COAST BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW WRN PA WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD VICINITY APPALACHIANS. STEEP...COLD LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES AS S/WV TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH. MEAGER SURFACE MOISTURE AVAILABLE E OF APPALACHIANS WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 40F. HOWEVER GIVEN THE HEATING/MIXING E OF MOUNTAINS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODELS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP SOME WEAK CAPE BY MID AFTERNOON...100-300 J/KG. LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E OF VA/NC HIGHER TERRAIN DURING AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WHILE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...THE 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL POSE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING AS S/WV TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE E. ..HALES.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS02 KWNS 111705 SWODY2 SPC AC 111704 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED OFF THE SRN CA COAST AND THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT ESEWD INTO NRN MEXICO POSSIBLY ENHANCING ASCENT ALONG THE BORDER OF AZ DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES LIMITING THE THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ...AZ... UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA TOWARD NWRN PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. IT APPEARS ANY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...THUS LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN STRONG HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S. DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS01 KWNS 111925 SWODY1 SPC AC 111924 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ECG 30 ENE RWI 45 NNW RWI 20 W RIC 20 NE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CHS 20 SE AGS 25 N SPA 25 S SSU 35 WNW DCA 20 NW DOV 30 S ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN NC AND SERN VA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR HAS LIMITED HEATING ACROSS SERN VA AND MUCH OF THE ERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...DEEPENING CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THAT REGION ALONG/EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN AXIS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE HAS NOW GIVEN WAY TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ONGOING CONVECTION TO MOVE TOWARD COASTAL VA/NC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY YET PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE SHEAR WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ..DARROW.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.