000 ACUS11 KWNS 080004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080003 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-080200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080003Z - 080200Z THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY SW GA THIS EVENING. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH. EARLY THIS EVENING A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF SRN LA EWD INTO THE NERN GULF. S OF THE BOUNDARY...MUCH RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SEWD TONIGHT. ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE NRN GULF INTO GA. LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS SHOULD RESULT IN MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DESTABILIZATION NEWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...AND THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. ..DIAL.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 29838527 30588615 31048531 30918274 29718294  000 ACUS01 KWNS 080101 SWODY1 SPC AC 080059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM 15 SSW LFT 10 E POE 35 NNW HEZ 20 SE GWO 35 E TUP 35 NNE HSV 30 NNW CHA 20 S TYS 35 W AVL 25 SW HKY 25 WSW RDU 25 N HSE ...CONT... 20 ESE JAX 20 WSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DAB 35 WNW FMY ...CONT... 40 NW LRD 35 NNW VCT 50 E CLL 25 NNE PRX 15 W FSM JBR 45 WSW HOP 25 NE LUK 10 N CLE ...CONT... 40 WSW MSS 40 WSW SLK 30 E UCA 40 E BGM 25 SSW BGM 35 NW IPT 30 WNW AOO 15 WSW EKN 40 E SSU 25 ENE CHO 20 SE DCA 35 NE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS/GA/NRN FL OVERNIGHT... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES EWD TO CAROLINAS/GA... STRONG 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 180-210 METERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND EWD OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF A STRONG MID-UPPER TROUGH MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY TO GULF COAST STATES. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS TO 100 KT BY 12Z ARE EXPECTED ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WITHIN SRN STREAM FLOW OVER THE NRN GULF. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND EWD TO THE CAROLINAS AS COUPLED MID LEVEL JET STRUCTURE EVOLVES OVER THIS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A COASTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE COAST SHOULD MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING AS WSWLY LLJ INTENSIFIES TO 50+ KT FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEWD TO VA. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AL/SERN MS AND THE COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO COASTAL PLAINS OF TX WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS/GA. DESPITE WEAK DESTABILIZATION FARTHER EAST...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS LIKELY TO THE SE COAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL INTO GA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AND/OR THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AS UVVS INCREASE WITH THE DEVELOPING COUPLED MID LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. FARTHER S...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY FROM JUST OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND EWD ACROSS FL PANHANDLE. IF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY CAN MOVE NWD INTO GA...THEN SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS FAR INLAND AS WELL. TLH VAD WIND DATA SUGGESTS FAVORABLE LOW TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. ...UPPER TX COAST... AIR MASS STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A DECREASED SEVERE THREAT FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA. ..PETERS.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS11 KWNS 080111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080111 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-080315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0271 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 45... VALID 080111Z - 080315Z THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AL. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF MAINTAINING THEIR INTENSITY...WW MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL GA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CALERA SWWD TO SELMA. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT 45 TO 50 KT. THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE E OF WW 45 BY 03Z. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE OWING TO MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER... DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO WRN GA AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. MOREOVER...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE LINE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION NEXT FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM FROM THE INITIAL LINE...A SECONDARY LINE CONTINUES ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NERN MS SWWD THROUGH NRN LA. THE STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE MAY TEMPER THE SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE AND SOME DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD INTO THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30668457 29868750 29868961 31808958 32978792 34048502 33508351  000 ACUS11 KWNS 080115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080114 COR GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-080315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0271 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN AL...THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND WRN AND CNTRL GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 45... VALID 080114Z - 080315Z CORRECTED FOR PORTION OF AL AND GA AFFECTED BY THE MD THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AL. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF MAINTAINING THEIR INTENSITY...WW MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL GA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CALERA SWWD TO SELMA. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT 45 TO 50 KT. THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE E OF WW 45 BY 03Z. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE OWING TO MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER... DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO WRN GA AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. MOREOVER...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE LINE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION NEXT FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM FROM THE INITIAL LINE...A SECONDARY LINE CONTINUES ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NERN MS SWWD THROUGH NRN LA. THE STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE MAY TEMPER THE SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE AND SOME DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD INTO THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30668457 29868750 29868961 31808958 32978792 34048502 33508351  000 ACUS11 KWNS 080126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080125 COR GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-080315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0271 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN AL...THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND WRN AND CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45... VALID 080125Z - 080315Z CORRECTED TO CHANGE TYPE OF WATCH FROM TORNADO TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AL. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF MAINTAINING THEIR INTENSITY...WW MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL GA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CALERA SWWD TO SELMA. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT 45 TO 50 KT. THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE E OF WW 45 BY 03Z. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE OWING TO MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER... DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO WRN GA AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. MOREOVER...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE LINE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION NEXT FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM FROM THE INITIAL LINE...A SECONDARY LINE CONTINUES ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NERN MS SWWD THROUGH NRN LA. THE STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE MAY TEMPER THE SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE AND SOME DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD INTO THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30668457 29868750 29868961 31808958 32978792 34048502 33508351  000 ACUS11 KWNS 080402 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080402 GAZ000-FLZ000-080530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0272 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH SW GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 47... VALID 080402Z - 080530Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO SW GA. THE HIGHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FL PANHANDLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LATE THIS EVENING A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE SWWD INTO THE NERN GULF MOVING EWD AT 35 TO 40 KT. ISOLATED TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC OVER GULF COUNTY FL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STRONG ROTATION CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED WITH STORMS ON THE NRN END OF THE LINE WHERE SURFACE DATA ALSO INDICATES PRESENCE OF A MESOLOW AND PRESSURE FALLS. LATEST VWP DATA SHOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED OVER THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE E OF THE MESOLOW...RESULTING IN LARGE...CURVED HODOGRAPHS. MOREOVER...THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE SERN STATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD DESTABILIZATION AND MAINTAIN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SW GA NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29268520 29798556 30778493 31168333 31168250 30508223 29608281  000 ACUS11 KWNS 080421 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080421 GAZ000-SCZ000-ALZ000-080545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0273 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46... VALID 080421Z - 080545Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE MAINLY WITH LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL GA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LINE OF STORMS JUST W OF MACON CONTINUES EAST AT 50 KT. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...THE LINE IS MOVING EWD FASTER THAN THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE...AND NOCTURNAL COOLING IS OFFSETTING THE EFFECT OF THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOMEWHAT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG AND INSTABILITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE LINE CONTINUES EAST. AS A RESULT...TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE LINE TO WEAKEN AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE LINE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND/SHEAR PROFILES AND LIFT ALONG THE GUST FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LOW TOPPED...FORCED LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG-DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 31368211 31098476 32168500 33418301 33348174 32168148  000 ACUS01 KWNS 080530 SWODY1 SPC AC 080529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DAB 25 N PIE ...CONT... 45 WNW CTY 35 NE AYS 10 E SOP 20 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W COS 35 ENE RWL 25 ESE SHR 15 SSW REJ 25 NNE PHP 15 WSW ANW 45 SSW HSI 20 N HUT 25 SW OKC 15 WNW SEP 10 SSE BGS 25 S CVS 45 W COS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PFN 30 SE SPA 45 SE LYH 25 NNW BOS 10 NNE HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY THIS MORNING FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS SWD TO NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AT 12Z TODAY AND WITHIN THE BASE OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT TRACKS TOWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z...BEFORE MOVING NNEWD TO NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE GULF COAST STATES TROUGH WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH...NOW MOVING OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TODAY AS LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL ASCENT DEVELOPS WITH THE SEWD MOVING TROUGH. ...ERN CAROLINAS SWD TO CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW...WITH THE SERN STATES TROUGH...WILL BE LOCATED OVER VA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO EXTEND SSWWD ALONG THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TO THE NERN GULF AT 12Z WILL PUSH EWD AND OFF THE VA TO GA COAST DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD. AIR MASS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS SWD TO NRN FL IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE PRIOR TO 12Z AS A PLUME OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ADVECTS NEWD ALONG A 50-70 KT SWLY LLJ. WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE ANY ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL NC WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT SWWD TO FAR SERN GA AND NRN FL. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY...STRONG UVVS WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD THIS MORNING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS NERN SC/ERN SC AS -20 TO -24C MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREAD EWD ACROSS THIS AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS SERN GA/NRN FL FIRST WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING OVER COASTAL NC THROUGH 18Z. FARTHER S...VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SEWD TODAY AND OFF THE S FL COAST THIS EVENING. GIVEN THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND STRONGER UPPER FORCING MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM FL...THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY LOCATED OVER NRN FL AT 12Z WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT MOVES SEWD. DESPITE THIS FACT...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL FL GIVEN STRONG WLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. ..PETERS/BOTHWELL.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS02 KWNS 080535 SWODY2 SPC AC 080534 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW PSX 45 ENE CLL 45 N GGG 35 ENE TXK 35 WNW GLH 25 SE JAN 30 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 50 W Y22 40 W RAP 25 WSW WRL 55 SW MQM 55 ENE BKE 30 NNE 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AT 09/12Z WILL TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH WEAKER SYSTEM IN SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE... NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO CNTRL PLAINS SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER THE ARKLATEX AT 09/12Z WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE NERN GULF WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FARTHER N...SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO MN WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS STATES. ...E TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S. HOWEVER... STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS... INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL CANADA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME ALONG SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WITH AREAL COVERAGE AND STORM INTENSITY LIMITED BY VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS03 KWNS 080610 SWODY3 SPC AC 080609 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF BROAD...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL OCCUR OVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE DAY 3 PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING IN THE W. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM MN INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE TX COAST...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE WITH NO SEVERE TSTMS FORECAST. ..MEAD.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS11 KWNS 080728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080728 FLZ000-080930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL/NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 47... VALID 080728Z - 080930Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS CURRENT WW /47/ EXPIRES AT 09Z. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES CONTINUES... AND...BY 12Z...INTENSE WESTERLY HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN EVOLVING PATTERN...EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM...IS ALREADY PROGRESSING EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...ALONG TRAILING WIND SHIFT...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS IN BAND SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE THROUGH THE GAINESVILLE AND CROSS CITY AREAS. ACTIVITY EXTENDS OFF INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO AXIS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE CAPE. THIS MAY STILL YET SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. MODELS SUGGEST TROUGH WILL TAKE ON INCREASING NEUTRAL...THEN NEGATIVE TILT...ACROSS GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 12-18Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA/FLORIDA PENINSULA AREAS. COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH DAYBREAK. THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS/INCREASE IN SURFACE HEATING/AND MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...MOSTLY NORTH OF A TAMPA/ VERO BEACH LINE. ..KERR.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 28918636 29428530 29398425 29478305 30008185 29948126 29018037 27938012 27438043 27378191 27678294 27648414 27708494 28108629 28278664  000 ACUS11 KWNS 080759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080758 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-080900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46... VALID 080758Z - 080900Z RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN FORM OF STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED/MARGINAL ENOUGH TO ALLOW WW 46 TO EXPIRE AS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED AT 09Z. NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS IS CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SHIFTING EAST/SOUTH OF THE MACON AND COLUMBUS GA AREAS. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH APPEARS TO MINIMIZING EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS REFLECTED BY LIMITED CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES IN LIGHTNING DATA. SHALLOW NEUTRAL OR STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER ALSO APPEARS TO BE LIMITING MAGNITUDE OF PEAK GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF LINE. HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION OF FLOW FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES MAY SUPPORT SOME ACCELERATION OF LINE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS...AT LEAST SOME RISK OF STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST WITH ACTIVITY AS IT SPREAD INTO GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 11-12Z. ..KERR.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31138144 30958302 30898432 31368483 31978378 32478308 33098225 33488162 33618062 33977937 34037800  000 ACUS01 KWNS 081252 SWODY1 SPC AC 081250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 35 WNW CAE 20 WNW CLT 15 W GSO 30 NNE RWI 35 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DRT 50 S CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE OKC 35 S DUA 40 NE ACT 45 W TPL 35 SSE SJT 35 N MAF 30 S TCC 20 NW RTN 35 SSW PUB 25 WSW LIC 50 SE AKO 55 N GCK 40 W P28 25 ENE OKC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CTY 30 WNW JAX 35 W SAV 45 W AGS 25 WNW AND 30 E HSS 10 SSE SSU 45 NNE CHO 25 NE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN SC/NC.... ...CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE MORNING... AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ROTATING EWD OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST DOWNSTREAM ASCENT NOW OVERSPREADING SC AND NC. SOME CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS CENTRAL SC/NC...THOUGH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THIS POINT. OTHER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM THE PIEDMONT SWWD INTO E CENTRAL GA...ALONG AN AXIS OF MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-250 J/KG. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL REACH THE COASTS OF GA/SC BY ABOUT 15Z AND THE NC COAST BY ABOUT 17Z...BRINGING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION...GIVEN THE OBSERVED 50 KT FLOW WITHIN 1 KM OF THE GROUND. ...FL PENINSULA... A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DRIFTED SWD INTO CENTRAL FL. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITED OVERNIGHT BY RELATIVELY DRY TRAJECTORIES ALONG THE PENINSULA...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SWLY /OFF THE ERN GULF/. STILL...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF FL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL END WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL BY MIDDAY...AND THE SE FL COAST BY THIS EVENING. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS TOO LIMITED/MARGINAL TO WARRANT MAINTAINING A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA TODAY. ...PLAINS AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT THIS MORNING WILL DIG SSEWD TO OK/TX BY TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL TEND TO OFFSET THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND SUPPORT A MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO NW TX AND WRN OK BY EARLY TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/BRIGHT.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS11 KWNS 081323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081322 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-081345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0276 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081322Z - 081345Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT...IN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT SURGES EAST OF THE PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING. ..KERR.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33758058 34588031 35487954 36397898 36637819 36627669 36057599 34687655 32957900 32918051  000 ACUS11 KWNS 081625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081624 NCZ000-VAZ000-081800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48... VALID 081624Z - 081800Z SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NC. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL STORMS VACATE THE OUTER BANKS BETWEEN 08/17 AND 08/18Z. LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD TOWARD THE COAST...WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT VERY STRONGLY-SHEARED AIRMASS. MORNING MHX RAOB AND LATEST VWP INDICATE 50 TO 60 KT WIND AT 1 KM INCREASING TO 85 TO 90 KT AT MID LEVELS...SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS LINE. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN STRENGTH OF KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AND RECENT REPORTS OF MEASURED 80 TO 100 MPH WIND GUSTS RECENTLY FROM IN AND NEAR WILMINGTON NC...A FEW ADDITIONAL VERY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS EVENTS MAY OCCUR AS STORMS REACH COASTAL NC / THE OUTER BANKS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 36597719 36557589 35667548 35287551 34557648 33897806 35237740  000 ACUS01 KWNS 081626 SWODY1 SPC AC 081624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE OAJ 50 W ECG 10 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW FMY 10 SE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DRT 15 SE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S SJT 35 N MAF 20 WSW RTN 55 E GUC 15 S FCL 25 SW SNY 50 ESE GLD 25 NNW ADM 40 N DAL 35 N CLL 25 W AUS 45 S SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ILM 25 WSW OAJ 30 NE RWI 40 W ORF 20 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NC AND EXTREME SERN VA... ...ERN NC AND EXTREME SERN VA... FAST-MOVING LINE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO ERN NC AND SERN VA LATE THIS MORNING. EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON A 270/48 MOVEMENT SUGGESTS THAT THE LINE WILL CLEAR THE OUTER BANKS BY 18Z. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS /AOA 50KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE/ HAVE MAINTAINED THE LINEAR STRUCTURE TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED AND THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH 18Z. AFTER THE LINE MOVES OFF THE COAST...STRONG COLD ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES WILL ENSUE AND THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ...FL PENINSULA... WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SRN FL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE FROM CURRENT VALUES. MOREOVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE UVV WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE RAPIDLY NEWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO LIMITED/MARGINAL TO INCLUDE IN A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK. ..RACY/GUYER.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS02 KWNS 081729 SWODY2 SPC AC 081728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S VCT 65 NNE VCT 50 SW LFK 50 NW POE 25 NE ESF MCB 35 SSE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 15 NE MIA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT NW FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF ERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY ACROSS THE GULF STATES DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING ACROSS TX ALONG SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE LAPSE RATE PROFILE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION BUT LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL INCREASE ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HELPFUL IDENTIFYING ANY MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WSWLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY MIGHT EXIST ABOVE 850MB TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS11 KWNS 081913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081913 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-082315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0278 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MA/NH/MAINE CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 081913Z - 082315Z SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF MA/NH INTO MAINE...WITH 1-2 IN/HR RATES COMMON. ON ERN PERIPHERY OF HEAVY SNOW...FZRA/SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN ACROSS ERN MA/SE NH/DOWNEAST MAINE...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AT 18Z...APPROX 977 MB SFC LOW CENTERED SOUTH OFF OF LONG ISLAND AROUND 85 SSE ISP...WITH STRONG DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSED ALONG THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND PROGRESS NEWD...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OVERSPREAD OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER /600-850 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LIKELY FOCUS HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG A SSW-NNE ORIENTATION FROM MA INTO SRN MAINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH 1-2 IN/HR RATES LIKELY. ON ERN PERIPHERY OF HEAVIEST SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...15Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS/PTYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST FZRA/SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION ACROSS ERN MA/SE NH...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND/AFTER 00Z OWING TO CAA/DYNAMIC COOLING. ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE...A MORE PRONOUNCED CORRIDOR OF FZRA/SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF PWM-AUG-BGR-RKD AREAS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z OWING TO ENCROACHMENT OF 750-850 MB WARM LAYER. ..GUYER.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 44267193 46227024 46976946 46756848 46306805 44746857 44106908 43457062 42357108 41967100 41777225 41947279 42417293  000 ACUS01 KWNS 081941 SWODY1 SPC AC 081940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FMY 20 S PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE MRF 35 SW FST 30 SSE HOB 50 WSW CVS 45 SSW ALS 40 ESE GUC 30 NW COS 20 ENE LIC 55 SE GLD 40 SW END 40 N DAL 20 E ACT 25 S AUS 30 N NIR 15 ESE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER CO...DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO WHERE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE MAY ENHANCE SWD DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH DEEPEST CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. FARTHER SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NERN MEXICO AND MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO SOUTH TX LATER IN THE PERIOD. EVEN SO THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK/ISOLATED. ...SOUTH FL... CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA AS SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SWD MOVEMENT. IT APPEARS IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS ZONE THEY LIKELY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ..DARROW.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS11 KWNS 082102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082102 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0279 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM / TX S PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082102Z - 082230Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX S PLAINS -- PERHAPS INTO WRN N TX AND FAR SWRN OK AS WELL AS SWWD INTO SERN NM -- IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THOUGH A CONDITIONAL / LOW-END SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION FROM ROUGHLY LBB TO 35 W CDS...AND ALSO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM. DRY / DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THOUGH THIS DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION...COLD MID-LEVEL AIR /NEAR -20C/ AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING HAS YIELDED IN MINIMAL INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE/. ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD /AOB 25 KT THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERE/ SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY / LONGEVITY. NONETHELESS...WITH COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THREAT FOR A MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL / WIND REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. UNLESS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING TO A GREATER DEGREE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 33500284 33910213 34660027 34809958 34439935 33719971 32570134 32050288 31880474 32540529 33280516