000 ACUS01 KWNS 260101 SWODY1 SPC AC 260059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... LATEST RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY /MULI/S OF -1 TO -2 C AND MUCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG/ HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. CORRESPONDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 00Z NKX OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT ENVIRONMENT BELOW 500-600 MB REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...HAS SUPPRESSED ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED TO THE N OVER THE SIERRAS NW OF TVL WHERE IT APPEARS THAT OROGRAPHIC ASCENT HAS ALLOWED WEAKLY BUOYANT PARCELS TO REACH THE LFC. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM THE COAST INLAND TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRAS...IT APPEARS THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ...SRN MO INTO TN AND NRN MS/AL... 00Z SGF SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7.5 C/KM/ AND SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN DIVERGENT NERN QUADRANT OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING ESEWD ACROSS AR/SRN MO. DESPITE WEAKENING IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STEEP OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL EXIST E/NE OF UPPER SYSTEM TRACK WHERE THESE LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. SHOULD ANY TSTMS DEVELOP...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED...PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA. ..MEAD.. 01/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS01 KWNS 260532 SWODY1 SPC AC 260530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S AST 30 SE SLE 15 SW LMT 40 WNW TVL 35 ENE FAT 40 NNE NID 40 ESE LAS 30 SSW INW 65 NE SAD 35 W ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...ANALYZED JUST OFF THE W COAST AND COMPOSED OF SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS /PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/...WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY 1 FORECAST PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDING EWD INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. IN THE E...AMPLIFICATION OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL OCCUR FROM ERN CANADA SWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. ...W COAST INTO DESERT SW... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE CA COAST INTO THE CNTRL VALLEY AND ADJACENT SIERRA RANGE. HERE...AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY DESTABILIZE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY OWING TO DIABATIC HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK /MUCAPES AOB 200-300 J/KG/ BUT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF PERSISTENT TSTMS. FARTHER SE OVER THE DESERT SW...SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY JUST OFF BAJA CA COAST/...WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. IN IT/S WAKE...PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HERE TOO...AIRMASS WILL BECOME ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE /MUCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG/ OWING MARGINAL NATURE OF LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...EPISODIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..MEAD.. 01/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS02 KWNS 260606 SWODY2 SPC AC 260605 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST WED JAN 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 45 WSW EED 20 E LAS 50 SSE SGU 45 ESE PGA 20 SW FMN 45 SW TCC 25 NNW PVW CDS 30 N MWL 15 NE ACT 10 E CLL 25 NE GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS NUMEROUS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE WEST...SOUTHWEST...AND ROCKIES...ON INCREASINGLY STRONG SRN STREAM FLOW. JET STREAM FLOW OF 130-150KT WAS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE INCREASING WLY FLOW WILL AID IN MOVING OFFSHORE VORTICITY CENTERS ACROSS THE CA COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THESE IMPULSES...A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE...INFUSED WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS WHILE DEAMPLIFYING DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. BY EARLY THURSDAY... A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FCST TO BE SITUATED OVER CA WITH 100-120KT SRN STREAM JET ACROSS THE BAJA AND NRN GULF OF CA. STRONG UPWARD MOTION WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SRN STREAM JET WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN AZ...NM...AND TX FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ...SOUTHWEST... SCATTERED CONVECTION AND A FEW TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS SRN AZ AS STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACT ON MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE...COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA/ASCENT...WILL LEAD TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 200-300 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NM AND FAR WEST TX THROUGH THE DAY WITH ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED AND SPORADIC TSTMS LIKELY. FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MARGINAL CAPE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THESE AREAS. ...TX... INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED OVER A BROAD SWATH FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWWD TO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND JET MAX MOVE EAST. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EAST ATOP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. THIS PROCESS SHOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. EFFECTIVE SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COULD RESULT IN STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL (MUCAPE GENERALLY UNDER 200 J/KG) TO PROMOTE STRONG UPDRAFTS. WHILE AN ISOLD MARGINAL HAIL EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 01/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS03 KWNS 260711 SWODY3 SPC AC 260710 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 AM CST WED JAN 26 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE SRN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PLAYING A ROLE IN TSTM ACTIVITY. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS TX AND THE NWRN GULF COAST. LATEST ETA IS A BIT STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE AS OPPOSED TO LATEST GFS WHICH HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...INCLUDING DGEX...UKMET... ECMWF...AND CMC...WITH A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER CA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH BOTH THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...PROXIMITY OF GULF MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE ACROSS TX COULD PROMOTE STRONGER TSTMS OVER THIS AREA. ...TX... STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM SERN TX NNEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX DURING FRIDAY. STRONGEST ASCENT SHOULD OCCUR ATOP COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BEING REINFORCED BY AIR MASS TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM COLD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ERN U.S. HIGHER THETAE GULF AIR MASS MAY DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN TX COASTAL PLAIN AND THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY FUEL CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. IF ETA MODEL VERIFIES...DYNAMIC FORCING...SHEAR...AND LAPSE RATES WOULD MARGINALLY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES MENTIONED ABOVE...UNCERTAINTY IN ETA FCST REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO REFRAIN FROM ISSUING SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 01/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS01 KWNS 261256 SWODY1 SPC AC 261255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST WED JAN 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CLM PDX 15 SW LMT 40 WNW TVL 10 NW BIH 35 NE DRA 25 NNE FLG 15 SE ONM 30 W CNM 60 SSW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OFF THE W CST WILL CONTINUE E INTO WA/ORE AND CA THIS PERIOD AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS E INTO THE PLAINS. EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER INCREASING DIFFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING 150W...AND SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THE IMPULSE NOW APPROACHING 35N/127W SPLIT AWAY FROM NRN MEMBER ATTM NEAR 45N/136W. THE SRN IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO CNTRL CA BY EARLY TONIGHT...WHILE THE LOBE OF VORTICITY CONNECTING THAT SYSTEM TO THE NRN DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE ORE CST. FARTHER S... LEAD IMPULSE IN DEVELOPING SRN STREAM JET HAS REACHED THE NW CORNER OF MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD TRACK ENE AND WEAKEN AS PERSISTENT EQUATORWARD FLOW NOW EVIDENT OFF THE SRN CA CST /PER STLT/ WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AXIS OF SRN BRANCH TROUGHING OVER NRN BAJA AND SRN CA. ...W CST INTO SWRN U.S... PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE PERIODIC DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTM CLUSTERS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FAR WEST AND THE SWRN DESERTS THIS PERIOD AS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT...MID LEVEL COOL ADVECTION AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT ACT UPON SEASONABLY MOIST MP-TYPE AIR MASS. DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE FEEBLE OVER MOST AREAS...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MODEST /ON THE ORDER OF 7 DEG C PER KM/. THUS...EXPECT THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MODULATED MAINLY BY OROGRAPHY...AND THE PRESENCE OF ENHANCED ASCENT NEAR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. ..CORFIDI.. 01/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS01 KWNS 261546 SWODY1 SPC AC 261545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CST WED JAN 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CLM PDX 15 SW LMT 40 WNW TVL 10 NW BIH 35 NE DRA 25 NNE FLG 15 SE ONM 30 W CNM 60 SSW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS...AS LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WEST COAST. PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUPPORTING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...AZ INTO THE SRN ROCKIES... SYSTEM /NOW MOVING ACROSS AZ/ WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER SERN AZ...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS ENEWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND LIFT/COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ...WEST COAST TO THE SIERRAS... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CA AND THE WA/ORE COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H5 TEMPERATURES FROM -20C TO -24C. IN ADDITION...WV IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. AS THESE SYSTEMS CONTINUE EAST...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS WOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL CA LATER TODAY...AS CLEARING AND COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE EWD NEAR MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 175 MI EAST OF SFO AT 15Z. DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AROUND 50F...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AS MODEL SOUNDINGS FAIL TO GENERATE EVEN MODEST SHEAR /H85 TO H7 WINDS REMAIN FROM 10-15 KT/. HOWEVER...A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE HAIL AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY...SHOULD SOME CLEARING/HEATING DEVELOP. ..EVANS.. 01/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS02 KWNS 261617 SWODY2 SPC AC 261616 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST WED JAN 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 40 E BLH DRA P38 CDC BCE LVS TCC AMA CSM 35 E FSI DAL CLL NIR 35 SSE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE WILL GET UNDERWAY THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS ATLANTIC STATES AND FALL ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CONUS. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN IS FCST WITH TROUGH EXITING NERN STATES AND RIDGE MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. UPSTREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANEL IMAGERY APCHG CA COAST -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM ERN CA ACROSS GREAT BASIN TO SRN HIGH PLAINS DAY-2. BY ROUGHLY 28/12Z...ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- PART OF PERTURBATION NOW EVIDENT NEAR 35N150W -- SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL CA COAST. ...SWRN CONUS...SRN PLAINS... MIDLEVEL ASCENT/COOLING JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD STEEPEN DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION -- AIDED BY DIABATIC HEATING DURING DAY OVER AZ/NM AND BY LOW LEVEL WAA NOCTURNALLY ACROSS PORTIONS SRN GREAT PLAINS. MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY IN BOTH AREAS SHOULD BE TOO WEAK FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 850 MB PROGS REASONABLY INDICATE PREDOMINANCE OF TRAJECTORIES FROM LOW-THETAE CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD. THIS...COMBINED WITH SLOW AIR MASS MODIFICATION PROCESS OVER GULF...WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...AFTER ABOUT 28/06Z...SLY COMPONENT WITHIN 30-40 KT LLJ SHOULD MOISTEN AIR MASS ENOUGH ABOVE SFC SO THAT SOME ELEVATED PARCELS CAN REACH LFC...BASED ON NAM MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS. FARTHER W...A FEW TSTMS MAY OCCUR INVOF COASTAL CA OR INLAND CENTRAL VALLEY NEAR END OF PERIOD. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL AND STRENGTH OF ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LACK OF SUPPORT FROM DIABATIC HEATING AT THAT TIME OF DAY...PRECLUDE EXTENDING GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK WWD ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 01/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  000 ACUS01 KWNS 261902 SWODY1 SPC AC 261900 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CST WED JAN 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CLM PDX LMT 30 W RNO 60 ESE BIH 55 N LAS GCN ONM 30 W CNM 60 SSW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGSTANDING ERN TROUGH/WRN RIDGE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ONSHORE PACIFIC COAST...FROM NWRN MEX TO SRN AK. WRN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OFF ROCKIES AND OVER PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS NOW OVER WRN AZ...CA CHANNEL ISLANDS...AND JUST OFFSHORE NRN CA/ORE. AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROCEED SEWD ACROSS S TX...MS DELTA REGION AND SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT. ...W COAST TO SERN BASIN AND RANGE REGION... INTRUSIONS OF COOLER MIDLEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BROADER SCALE DESTABILIZATION UNDERWAY OVER AREA AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN COVERAGE...AND INTERMITTENT/EPISODIC IN TIME...THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SFC DEW POINTS ARE COMMONLY IN 50S F FROM NRN CA TO SRN AZ...WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT OVERALL MLCAPE TO UNDER 200 J/KG MOST AREAS. A FEW STRONG TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS COLDEST MIDLEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LANDFALLING PERTURBATION MOVES ATOP WEAKLY DIABATICALLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER IN CENTRAL VALLEY. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL ACROSS CA BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 01/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.